Under the Spotlight: 4DMedical ($4DX)

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A year ago, 4DMedical ($4DX) looked more like a cautionary tale than the next hot ASX medtech.

By July 2025, its share price had fallen to around 24 cents, well below its 2020 IPO price and roughly 90% below the highs it hit after listing. Investors had largely lost patience with the promise of better lung imaging. 

Then the chart staged a stunning reversal.

Over the past 12 months, 4DMedical shares have surged more than 1,500%, turning it from a speculative small cap into an S&P/ASX 200 company worth more than $2.5B. In April this year, it joined the ranks of Australia’s most valuable listed companies. 

The question now is whether the rally has real lungs, or whether investors are holding their breath.

SaaS model

4DMedical makes lung imaging software. Its key product is CT:VQ, which turns routine non-contrast chest CT scans into ventilation and perfusion maps.

It helps doctors assess how air and blood move through the lungs without relying on nuclear medicine scans or other invasive procedures.

Traditional ventilation-perfusion scans can be harder to access and less suited to mass rollout. 4DMedical’s pitch is that its software can make existing CT machines more useful, without hospitals needing to rebuild their imaging departments from scratch.

So far, it has ten software products across three categories: pulmonary function, pulmonary structure and cardiovascular.

Turning point

The big shift came in September 2025, when 4DMedical received U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) clearance for CT:VQ.

That approval opened the door to the U.S., the world’s largest healthcare market. It also came with Medicare reimbursement under Category III CPT codes, helping answer one of the most important questions for any medtech: who’s going to pay for it?

The market liked the answer. 4DMedical shares jumped more than 40% in a single session after the announcement, and the re-rate kept going.

Since then, CT:VQ has been adopted by influential U.S. medical centres including Stanford, Cleveland Clinic, UC San Diego Health, the University of Miami and the University of Chicago Medicine. Mayo Clinic has also been evaluating the technology under a 90-day deployment.

Early validation from major medical centres helps build clinical credibility, which is what turns promising software into a potential standard of care.

The deal maker

In December, 4DMedical expanded its partnership with Philips, which will distribute CT:VQ across North America. The agreement includes a minimum order commitment of around US$10M over 2026 and 2027.

There was also a vote of confidence from ASX medical imaging giant Pro Medicus ($PME) , which made a $10M strategic hybrid investment in 4DMedical last year.

Then came SimonMed. In May 2026, 4DMedical signed a three-year commercial agreement with one of the largest outpatient imaging providers in the U.S., spanning more than 170 centres across ten states. 4DMedical will earn revenue on a per-scan basis.

The numbers

In FY2025, 4DMedical reported operating revenue of $5.9M, up 56% on the prior year. That’s solid growth, but still small compared with the company’s current market value.

The business remains loss-making as it pours money into development, regulatory approvals and commercial expansion. Its EBITDA is expected to fall 238% in FY2026 to -$84.3M.

As always, the share price is being bolstered by the possibility of much larger revenue later. Broker estimates on LSEG suggest revenue could hit $22.5M by FY2027, a 281% increase from FY2025.

By the March 2026 quarter, 4DMedical was delivering SaaS products across 477 sites globally, up 32% year-on-year. It processed a record 86K scans in the quarter, up 79%, with gross margins above 90%.

That margin is part of what makes this story interesting for investors. If adoption keeps building, software can be a strong profit engine.

Buy or sell?

4DMedical has moved well beyond the ‘interesting idea’ stage. U.S., Canadian and EU clearance, major hospital adoption and strategic partnerships with Pro Medicus and Philips all point to genuine momentum. 

For bullish investors, the case is that 4DMedical is still early in a large global rollout. If CT:VQ becomes widely adopted, revenue could grow many times over from today’s base.

For cautious investors, the recovery trade has already happened. From here, 4DMedical needs to prove that impressive announcements can turn into meaningful recurring revenue.

The technology may be about better breathing, but at this valuation, investors do not have much oxygen to spare.

This is not financial advice nor a recommendation to invest in the securities listed. The information presented is intended to be of a factual nature only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The author of this article and other employees of Stakeshop Pty Ltd may hold positions or have financial interests in the company (or companies) discussed above. As always, do your own research and consider seeking financial, legal and taxation advice before investing.

Kylie Purcell

Senior Markets Commentator

Kylie Purcell is an investments analyst and finance journalist with over a decade of experience covering global markets, investment products and digital assets. Her commentary has been featured in publications including the Australian Financial Review, Yahoo Finance and The Motley Fool. She has a Masters Degree in International Journalism from Cardiff University and a Certificate of Securities and Managed Investments (RG146).